The Cvoter exit poll predicted a hung house in Jammu & Kashmir. The National Conference-Congress coalition is expected to win 40-48 seats out of 95 members. Ninety members of the Assembly are elected while five are chosen by the Lieutenant Governor.
It is likely that the BJP will continue to perform poorly in the Valley which has 47 constituencies. In the 2014 elections, it did not win any seats. However, it could finally gain a seat this time. According to India Today's CVoter exit survey, the party is likely to maintain its strength in Jammu by securing between 27 and 31 seats of the 43 total.
These numbers are good for Farooq Abdullah and the National Conference, but they have crushed the BJP's hopes. The central government has been claiming that will transform the region into "Naya Kashmir" in the last five years. This rhetoric has focused on peace, prosperity, and development. However, this rhetoric did not translate to votes for the saffron-colored party.
It is a mystery why the BJP's 'Naya Kashmir’ vision did not translate into a surge in electoral support. The BJP has been working hard to increase its presence and strengthen their cadres in the Valley while forging alliances, for example, with the Apni Party of Syed Altaf Bukhari and the Peoples Conference of Sajjad Lones.
The BJP needed to perform better in the Valley if it hoped to get its first Chief minister in Jammu & Kashmir. But nothing has worked in the region. First signs were visible during the Lok Sabha election when the BJP did not contest any of three parliamentary constituencies in the Valley. Many saw this as an admission of the party's failure to accomplish its mission in Kashmir following the abrogation Article 370.
The region experienced unprecedented restrictions when the central government abrogated Article 370 on August 2019. This stripped Jammu and Kashmir its special status and divided it into Union Territories. Narendra Modi's government, as the situation started to normalise and the tensions began to ease, put forward its narrative of a "Naya Kashmir" with promises of jobs, development, and security. The people felt a sense of loss after the special status was removed. However, there were few actions taken to alleviate this.
While regional parties such as the National Conference (NC), and Mehbooba Mufti's People's Democratic Party PDP, tapped into this 'dignity' element, framing it as anti Kashmir and portraying the BJP, as anti Kashmiri, a feeling that has remained active despite the peace and development push by the BJP.
The consequences of a heavy-handed approach to separatists' rights to free speech and civil liberties
Public discontent has been caused by the BJP's Naya Kashmir security strategy, which involved a policy based on collective responsibility and punishment. Many residents believed that their right to freedom of speech was being suppressed, despite the fact that they welcomed firm action against terrorism, secession, and stone-pelting. Fear is widely perceived as a tool to suppress dissent, and this perception has hindered the BJP from gaining electoral traction in Valley.
Gap in between promises and actions on Jobs and Investments
The BJP promised a series of development projects including the creation of jobs through massive investments to target the large number of unemployed but educated youth in the region. The lack of progress on these issues has led to a feeling of frustration and betrayal in the community.
Allies failed to deliver
In order to achieve its electoral strategy, BJP formed alliances with other parties such as Apni and People's Conference. These alliances failed to bear fruit after years of investment, and these parties were not able to challenge the NC or PDP.
According to an exit poll conducted by CVoter, the alliance of Congress and National Conference is expected to win 40 to 48 out 90 Assembly seats. The BJP may secure 27-32 Assembly seats while the Mehbooba-Mufti-led People's Democratic Party, or PDP, could win 6-12. Other parties and independents could win 6-11 seats.
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