Haryana Assembly Elections have been won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while Congress missed an opportunity to create an opposition coalition and undermine Narendra Modi as Prime Minister.
What was behind Congress' shocking loss when pollsters predicted an upswing?
OVERSELLING BRAND HOODA
At the party, the Hooda factor was overstated, with Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Deepender Singh Hooda seemingly running the show - their senior and junior counterparts taking almost 72 of 90 Assembly Seats between them; Kumari Selja won nine, with Randeep Surjewala accounting for two. This sent a strong signal that Jat Chief Ministership would return if Congress took power - a message clearly communicated on walls around the room.
The BJP took swift advantage of "Bapa-Bete Ki Party's" provocations to increase their vote totals and gain power.
The Congress should have taken greater precautions to avoid Jat versus non Jat debates becoming widespread, in an environment in which overselling of Jat factors has proved counterproductive to them in many states.
State unit was so divided by factionalism that even during an extended Congress Working Committee meeting (CWC), a verbal clash ensued between Kumari Selja, who complained she wasn't being included in programmes, and Deepak Babaria, state in-charge who supported Hooda group.
Rahul Gandhi quickly interjected, asserting that this wasn't the appropriate venue and they should work towards solving state issues independently.
As Congress General Secretary KC Venugopal refused to be drawn into the dispute and instructed his members to settle it among themselves, tensions continued to flare.
As soon as Hooda camp and Randeep Surjewala began to engage in open battle, tensions within Congress lieutenants quickly increased. Never could there be one unifying voice during election yatras or press conferences held by congress lieutenants.
DALIT AGGONISATION
An anti-Dalit comment made by Selja Kumari, a Dalit veteran leader and party veteran within BJP and an election veteran was the catalyst that propelled caste consolidation against Congress. A video featuring Congress members abusing Selja went viral while BJP leaders worked hard to highlight his humiliation within his Grand Old Party.
The Congress was optimistic that welcoming Dalits back would improve their prospects in the Assembly; however, nothing was done to quell any disagreement or resolve tension.
Selja did not contact any member of her party leadership for almost 12 days and preferred staying home rather than meeting with anyone outside her household. This sent shockwaves through both parties.
Dalit community was outraged that Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, both from Jat communities like their own, did nothing to stop the insults being directed against Dalits.
By the time Bhupinder Hooda and Kumari appeared alongside Rahul in Asandh, it was too late for repair. Dalits were already aware of Hooda & Kumari's message while having other options available through Bahujan Samaj Party/Azad Saaj Party alliances.
Ashok Tanwar's late return, though disappointing to those already committed, did not ease community tensions. Tanwar was brought in at the last minute in order to disparage Kumari Selja who had switched parties multiple times; people in Haryana knew about this fact and made fun of Tanwar for joining his party; one villager sent Tanwar a message mockingly making fun of Tanwar as joining it: he said in it, a villager made fun of Tanwar by writing: 'Ghar ka Jog na. Bahaar Ka Jog na. bahaar Ka Jog.
All Eggs In One Basket
The party relied too heavily on its internal survey. Instead of seeking alternative data sources or inputs from the ground to check its accuracy, Sunil Kanugolu, their poll pundit had performed far beyond expectations in Karnataka & Haryana and so the party decided to put all its eggs in his basket.
Not happy with their ticket allocation, a Congress leader cited Sunil Kanugolu's survey as the source for ticket allocation. Unfortunately, party leadership are often unaware that ground inputs differ. Unfortunately, that same survey is sent around different power centers like Hooda's camp and top party officials who receive it all for consideration when ticket allocation occurs.
Evidently, other voices such as Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala weren't part of either the Central Election Committee (CEC) or Screening Committee - so only Hooda's campaign could make their case heard.
As soon as tensions heightened, a subcommittee composed of more than 20 members was formed to address them.
Randeep Surjewala and Kumari Selja, as well as Captain Ajay Yaddav, red-flagged a number of candidates during subcommittee meetings - much too late - with little that could be done to stop it; further alienating state leaders who remained within their own homes.
Bet on the Wrong Horse
According to internal surveys of the party, Congress was projected to receive a score of around 60+ on its exam. Unfortunately, due to complacency from this projection, more than 12 seats were lost as they bet on an unwise horse.
There have been reports that the Congress lost seats due to the influence of Delhi Darbar. Some seats were lost by large margins and some candidates from this party placed third or fourth in these contests.
Some seats were won by close allies or former officeholders, including Balalabragrh where Parag Sharma was defeated by only 5,92 percent of votes, Bhawani Khera where Pradeep Narwal was outwitted by 21,7779, Gharaunda-Gharaunda-Gharaunda-Gharaunda - Badshahpur-Badshahpur, Tigaon Tigaon Tigaon
Numerous stakeholders campaigned hard for MLAs who were facing corruption charges to be given tickets. Rahul Gandhi put these MLAs' applications on hold, citing how doing so might compromise his party's image as an anti-corruption crusader; all three ended up running and losing.
Naranaul gave those with large surnames, such as family and close friends, preference in order to favor dynastic lines. Rao Narendra Singh, son of former minister Rao Bansi Singh and Rao Narendra Singh was given a ticket by Naranaul despite multiple losses at assembly elections; Bansilal's son-in-law who was also former chief minister got one too despite suffering multiple setbacks; Somveer's seat has also been relocated away from Loharu
Rebels and Small Political Parties Were Unable to Rein in
Assembly elections have become more localized and are being decided upon based on personal preferences and neighborhood allegiance, rather than any national agenda.
INLD and JJP had an alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad's party as well as Chandrashekhar's INLD; thus offering voters looking for alternatives to vote against BJP a wider selection of options.
As part of their opposition INDIA Alliance, Congress gave one seat to the Left while carving out their own territory within the state, giving other players an opportunity to take risks.
Even Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had sought an alliance with Congress, hoping it would mark a fresh beginning after their disastrous performance during the 2024 Lok sabha election campaign in Delhi.
Rahul's request that party leaders show kindness towards AAP was unsuccessful; no progress was made during talks between both parties.
Congress criticised AAP leaders for being overambitious. A senior AAP leader admitted this fact when speaking with India Today TV: "We wanted to run on five seats but cannot accept all other commitments".
One senior leader familiar with these discussions stated that Congress party state unit was emphatic about not wanting AAP; their workers could become disillusioned from alliance membership.
Smaller players were successful at siphoning off anti-incumbency votes and derail the Congress party's attack in many seats.
Congress was further beleaguered by rebellious members, which made matters even worse. Congress could neither control nor persuade these disgruntled candidates to withdraw, which cost Congress almost 12 seats in elections.
Anil Vij, a BJP leader in Ambala Cantt was unperturbed during the day of counting even though he was trailing. He believed the opposition votes would be divided among Congress rebel Chitra Sarwara & Parvinder Singh Pari; their combined votes exceeded Anil vij's, who ultimately earned only 59 858.
Congress has chosen to ignore a critical factor. Haryana elections are notoriously close; nearly 50% of seats had narrow victory margins during recent elections.
Brijendra Chowdhary of the Congress lost to Chatar Bhuj attri of the BJP by only 32 votes in Uchana Kalan.
Congress' mistakes in campaign management are compounded by their slim victory margin.
