A record number of nations voted in 2024 to elect new governments. In India and other countries, 2024 saw political relations become more strained, and the middle ground shrink. The year 2025 is a good time to think beyond elections.
In 2024, the political landscape in India and its immediate surroundings, as well as in many other countries, took an unexpected turn.
In some cases, these developments were rapid and unexpected. They could also be a catalyst for dynamic shifts in narratives and discourses.
In India and other countries, the relationships between political actors and parties continued to deteriorate. The divisions between governing parties and opposition parties grew, and their mutual hostility worsened.
The world was stunned by the scale of Donald Trump’s victory in America and Keir starmer’s landslide win in the United Kingdom. Long-standing regimes like Bashar al-Assad's in Syria and Hasina's in Bangladesh also fell in a matter of days.
Many people in India's neighborhood did not predict the victory of Anura Dissanayake, in Sri Lanka. Pakistan's political turmoil continued to worsen.
In Europe, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, there were political upheavals. The governments lost the confidence of the Parliament, signaling uncertainty and possible crises for the New Year.
In India, a second term for Prime Minister NarendraModi and the BJP was on the cards. Many thought the Lok Sabha elections were a formality. After the opening of Ayodhya's Ram Temple, the BJP had a positive outlook. The Stock Market performed well. It looked like the deal was done.
But , the result stunned the BJP and forced Modi to for the first time of his political career form a coalition government with regional parties that were ideologically diverse. The opposition was jubilant and many believed that the BJP would soon lose its hold on power.
Then came another surprise. In spectacular fashion, the BJP recovered in the Assembly Elections in Haryana, and Maharashtra. It regained its electoral mojo, and put the opposition under pressure, particularly the Congress. The Congress, who was inexplicably euphoric following its third consecutive defeat in Lok Sabha election, now faces increased challenges from its INDIA partners.
In the same year, Jammu & Kashmir saw the return of democratic elections. The people remained loyal to mainstream parties despite the presence of candidates supported by Engineer Rashid’s Awami ittehad party and Jamaat-e-Islami.
After a record-breaking 24 years, Naveen Patel, and the BJD left power in Odisha. This was a small political earthquake.
2024 was a year of elections. The year 2025 is a great opportunity to see beyond elections. This year will be one in which governance takes centre stage. The economic front is facing pressing challenges, as the growth rate has been slower than expected during the second quarter.
Here are five major issues, trends and developments which could influence the political discourse of India in 2025.
1. Political bitterness is increasing
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections sent a message that the people preferred continuity and moderation. Both the BJP as well as the Congress appear to have deliberately misread the mandate. They have consolidated their positions and have brought this bitter rivalry to everyday politics, the Parliament and beyond. The winter session of Parliament was the low point in the relationship between the ruling party, and the opposition.
The two sides, by their words and actions have reduced the scope for the democratic requirement of dialogue or engagement - whether in Parliament or out. First time in Indian history, the opposition parties attempted to remove the vice president from office, but failed. The move was not directed at Jagdeep dhankhar but clearly was aimed at government.
Anger will grow as a result of the ugly fight in Parliament and the filing of a FIR by the Leader of Opposition Rahul Ahmed. In order to restore some semblance to normality, both sides must find a middle ground of engagement and discussion, while pursuing their political and ideological goals.
2. Mandir-Masjid: Continued
The Supreme Court has temporarily halted the flood of civil lawsuits challenging the ownership of Muslim places-of-worship that were allegedly built on top of the ruins of Hindu temples. RSS Sarsanghchalak, Mohan Bhagwat, has stated that it is not acceptable to raise similar issues after the construction in Ayodhya of the Ram Temple.
It is unlikely, however, that the politics surrounding mandirs and masjids will end in 2025. At least 18 court cases involving 10 mosques/shrines are currently in the courts. Most of the suits claiming Hindu right over Muslim sites were filed in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP was heavily defeated by the SP and Congress during the Lok Sabha elections. The political climate in Uttar Pradesh is already heating up, even though the Assembly elections are still two years off.
3. Two Elections, Three Brands
Three major political brands will be tested in the 2025 Assembly elections: Nitish Kumri Arvind Kjriwal and Narendra Modi.
Nitish has been able to turn political and electoral failures into opportunities for more than 20 years, always staying afloat. He was also accused of choosing politics over ideology.
The Assembly elections in Bihar scheduled for October/November 2025 will be a major test for Nitish whose political demise has been predicted more than once. Tejashwi, who has been waiting for a long time to become Bihar's Chief Minister, will also be tested by the election.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi party in Delhi, which has been in power since 2013, is facing pressure unlike any other time. Will Kejriwal be able, after he was released on bail and was put in jail on corruption charges, to lead the AAP into a third consecutive term?
AAP was India's most popular political startup more than a decade back. Today, Kejriwal’s image as well as his brand of politics is at risk.
Both in Bihar and Delhi, the brand value of Prime Minister will also be tested. Delhi has been a political desert for the BJP for over two-and-a-half decades despite it winning all seven Lok Sabha Seats thrice since 2014
4. Legislation that is controversial
In 2025, the Parliament will take up at least two controversial and polarising Bills -- the Constitution Amendment Bill for synchronising Lok Sabha and Assembly Elections and the Bill regulating Wakf Properties.
The One Nation, One Election Bills, which have been referred to a Joint Committee of Parliament, will test the BJP’s ability to work across the aisle. A special majority of at least 50% of all members of the House, plus two thirds of those present and voting is required to pass the Constitutional Amendment Bill. The BJP doesn't have this kind of majority in either House.
In the past 10 years, BJP has been able to pass controversial legislation including the Bill that would divide Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories. Now, the dynamics are completely different. The opposition is almost unanimously against the One Nation One Election plan. The Wakf Bill is a test of the BJP’s ability to negotiate, especially with its allies TDP and JD(U), who have a large Muslim base.
5. Caste, Census and UCC
The rhetoric about caste is only going to get louder in a year, when the central government plans to start the decadal Census exercise. The biggest question is whether or not the government will include caste in its Census -- a politically explosive issue that the BJP so far has avoided.
The Congress believes that caste and social injustice can counter the BJP’s Hindutva. It is also for this reason that the BJP uses slogans such as " Batenge Toh Katenge " and " ek hain to safety hain". The Prime Minister has described the farmers, the youth, the poor and the women as "the biggest castes". The language in Parliament about the legacy of B R Ambedkar shows that the gloves have been taken off.
In his Independence Day address, the Prime Minister stressed the need to move towards a "secular" civil code instead of the "communal" civil code that currently exists. He returned to this topic when he responded to the debate in Lok Sabha on the 75th anniversary of the Constitution.
Amit Shah , the Home Minister of , has announced that BJP governments will introduce a civil code in all states. Uttarakhand's UCC is set to come into force in January 2025. The BJP is represented by Chief Ministers of 14 states including those in the Northeast. The UCC could lead to new political cleavages if efforts are made to expand the envelope.
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